Mortality rates high in 23 districts in Karnataka

Bengaluru, 31 May 2021 [Fik/News Sources]: At least 23 of the 31 districts in Karnataka, including Bengaluru Urban and Rural, have a moving growth rate in mortality higher than 10 per cent.

This is an indicator of fatalities doubling in a shorter period of time and an increase in the daily average number of deaths, besides inadequacies in testing procedures, containment measures and critical intervention to save lives.

The study, done by Jeevan Raksha under the technical guidance of Public Health Foundation of India, was conducted over two different periods — a one-week period between May 19 and 26 and another four-week period between April 28 and May 26.

In the May 19-26 period, the moving growth rate (MGR) of Covid deaths was over more than 10 per cent in 23 districts. In the four-week period, the mortality growth trend of the state increased by 79 per cent from 15,033 to 26,926.

“What is more concerning is that, the one-week MGR for rest of Karnataka (excluding Bengaluru Urban) increased from 6 to 11 per cent. One of the primary reasons is limited access to RT-PCR tests in rural areas. This means the death toll is likely to increase in semi-urban and rural areas. If necessary actions are not taken immediately, Karnataka’s toll is likely to cross 42,000 by the June-end,” Sanjeev Mysore, Convener of Jeevan Raksha, said.

In the four-week period, MGR increased by 98 per cent in Bengaluru Urban from 6,139 fatalities to 12,148. In rest of Karnataka, it increased by 66 per cent from 8,894 fatalities to 14,778. The average daily deaths in the week ending May 26 has increased when compared with the week ending May 19. In Bengaluru, it increased from182 to 273, while in the rest of Karnataka it went up from 238 to 245.

According to the analysis, inadequate and slow testing has resulted in higher deaths. In Tamil Nadu, adequate, quality and timely tests were carried out. Though Bengaluru Urban conducts 45,000+ tests every day, Chennai is doing only 30,000+ tests. This is because Tamil Nadu is the only state that carried out 100 per cent RT-PCR tests from the beginning. But Karnataka continues to flip-flop between unreliable Rapid Antigen Tests and RT-PCR tests, the analysis says.

“This validates that Karnataka is yet to realise tangible benefits in terms of saving lives. The lockdown is yet to deliver the desired results,” said Sanjeev.

The study indicates that one in every five people who has died due to Covid in Bengaluru Urban succumbed on the day of hospitalisation. There are many factors, including the fear of exorbitant hospitalisation charges pushing people to delay treatment. Also, Bengaluru failed to put in a robust system for hospitalisation.

The 23 districts that have over 10 per cent MGR are Bengaluru Urban and Rural, Uttara Kannada, Belagavi, Kolar, Chitradurga, Chamarajanaar, Shivamogga, Chikkaballapura, Chikkamagaluru, Yadgir, Gadag, Tumakuru, Mandya, Haveri, Ballari, Udupi, Hassan, Raichur, Koppal, Ramanagara, Kodagu and Kalaburagi.

There is a general perception that Covid has slowed down in Karnataka. When MGR is used, it gives the true picture. In April, the number of cases in Karnataka increased from 1 million to 1.44 million, the MGR was 44 per cent. In May, it increased from 1.44 million to 2.5 million with MGR at 74 per cent. With increase in MGR, doubling period reduces because the daily average number of cases increases. 
The average daily cases in April were 15,714 (4,40,000/28), whereas in May, it increased to 37,857.